% =====================================================================
% Project Albatross -- Workstream 1: Market structure & competitive landscape
% New Zealand Shell-Egg Market -- single-page structure map (LaTeX / TikZ)
% Halberd Capital Partners -- preliminary outside-in CDD (pre-LOI)
% Compile: pdflatex market_overview.tex  (single pass; no shell-escape needed)
% Page: A2 landscape (594 x 420 mm). Fonts: Helvetica family per brand guide.
% Palette: Halberd brand primary + secondary chart palette (brand guide, 2026).
% Currency: USD headline, NZD side-by-side, per Halberd analytical standards
%   section 7 and halberd_central_financial_assumptions.xlsx (April 2026):
%   FY24 figures at 0.602 USD/NZD (FY2024 historical average);
%   FY26 figures at 0.595 USD/NZD (FY2026 house forecast).
% =====================================================================
\documentclass[10pt]{article}
\usepackage[paperwidth=594mm,paperheight=420mm,margin=10mm]{geometry}
\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[scaled=0.95]{helvet}
\renewcommand{\familydefault}{\sfdefault}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{tikz}
\usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta,calc,decorations.pathreplacing}
\pagestyle{empty}
\setlength{\parindent}{0pt}

% ---- Halberd palette (brand guidelines 2026) ----
\definecolor{hnavy}{HTML}{142C52}
\definecolor{hslate}{HTML}{5A6B82}
\definecolor{hoak}{HTML}{A88B68}
\definecolor{hsnow}{HTML}{EAEEF5}
\definecolor{hsteel}{HTML}{3E6B89}
\definecolor{hmist}{HTML}{7A8FA9}
\definecolor{hsand}{HTML}{C4A484}
\definecolor{hsage}{HTML}{88AAA9}
\definecolor{hbronze}{HTML}{B07A4E}
\definecolor{hcoal}{HTML}{404C61}

% production-system colour coding (consistent across all panels)
\colorlet{colcolony}{hbronze!88}
\colorlet{colbarn}{hsand!95}
\colorlet{colfr}{hsage!95}
\colorlet{colcf}{hmist!75}      % cage-free, barn/free-range split not disclosed
\colorlet{colpast}{hsteel!75}   % pasture-raised marketing sub-tier (within free-range)
\colorlet{colgone}{hcoal!28}    % conventional cage (prohibited)

\begin{document}%
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  panel/.style={draw=hslate!50,fill=white,rounded corners=1.8mm,line width=0.5pt},
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% ============================== CANVAS =================================
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% ============================ TITLE BAND ================================
\fill[hnavy,rounded corners=2mm] (0,378) rectangle (574,400);
\node[anchor=west,text=white,font=\fontsize{20}{22}\selectfont\bfseries] at (8,391.5)
  {New Zealand Shell-Egg Market -- Structure Map};
\node[anchor=west,text=hsnow,font=\fontsize{8.5}{10}\selectfont] at (8,383.2)
  {Project Albatross\ \ $\vert$\ \ Workstream 1 of 4: market structure \& competitive landscape\ \ $\vert$\ \ preliminary outside-in commercial due diligence (pre-LOI)};
\node[anchor=east,text=white,font=\fontsize{11}{12}\selectfont\bfseries] at (566,393)
  {Halberd \textcolor{hsnow}{\mdseries capital partners}};
\node[anchor=east,text=hsnow,font=\scriptsize] at (566,386.5) {8 June 2026\ \ $\vert$\ \ Internal -- not for distribution};
\node[anchor=east,text=hsnow!85,font=\tiny] at (566,381.5) {Sources: deal-team source pool only; key in footer. \ $\dagger$ = contested across sources};

% intro (depiction over prose: one sentence)
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{7.6}{9}\selectfont,text=hcoal,inner sep=0pt] at (2,373.6)
  {One page on how the market is built: the end-to-end value chain and where margin sits (A), the four MPI housing systems and the two-phase cage-ban transition (B), producer scale and structure (C), channels and market size (D), and the cross-stage commercial dynamics that bear on a mid-stack producer in Aurora's position (E). Figures are working anchors, not audited; contested points carry $\dagger$ and the confirmatory questions they raise are flagged in context.};

% ====================================================================
% PANEL A -- VALUE CHAIN END-TO-END
% ====================================================================
\draw[panel] (0,266) rectangle (574,369);
\node[phead] at (4,364.4) {A\ \ $\vert$\ \ Value chain end-to-end: stages, intermediaries, margin capture -- target positioning marked};
\node[anchor=east,font=\tiny,text=hslate] at (570,364.4) {profit-pool tier shares: Pacific Agri Advisory FY24 sector briefing [PA]; unit economics: Calthorpe Part 4 value-chain annex, FY26 [C4/VA]};

% ---- Stage 1: upstream inputs (stacked) ----
\draw[stage] (3,300) rectangle (89,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (4.5,357) {1\ \ Upstream inputs};
\node[body,anchor=west,text width=83mm,inner sep=0pt] at (4.5,353.4) {suppliers sit outside the egg P\&L of all NZ producers except Mainland};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (5,340.5) rectangle (87,350.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (5.5,350.4) {\textbf{Feed grain \& milling} -- 55--65\% of variable cost. Traders/millers: PGG Wrightson, Farmlands, Ridley, NRM, Reliance; $\approx$60\% of NZ feed grain imported [SA/C7]. Mainland self-supplies via MainFeeds. \textcolor{hbronze}{\textbf{Aurora: external purchase, 4--6 wk inventory.}}};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (5,330) rectangle (87,339.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (5.5,339.4) {\textbf{Breeder genetics \& day-old chicks / pullets} -- EW Group lines $\approx$75--80\% of global layer genetics; NZ rearing via Northern Hylines (Wellsford); 6--9 mo lead time [C7/HM]. \textcolor{hbronze}{\textbf{Aurora buys point-of-lay pullets externally.}}};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (5,321) rectangle (87,329);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (5.5,328.9) {\textbf{Housing \& conversion equipment} -- Big Dutchman, Vencomatic, Salmet; 9--14 mo lead through the Phase 2 window [SA/C7].};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (5,312) rectangle (87,320);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (5.5,319.9) {\textbf{Packaging} -- moulded fibre: single NZ plant (Huhtamaki Otahuhu), no domestic backup at scale; 4--6\% of net sales [SA/PA].};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (5,301.5) rectangle (87,311);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (5.5,310.9) {\textbf{Electricity \& labour} -- gentailer tariffs +18--20\% cumulative CY24--26; labour 18--22\% of variable cost, no RSE access [SA/C7]. Manure offtake (Ravensdown / Ballance) is a small revenue offset.};

% ---- Stage 2: production ----
\draw[stage] (97,300) rectangle (177,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (98.5,357) {2\ \ Layer farming (grow-out)};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=76mm] at (98,354.5)
  {National flock $\approx$\textbf{3.75M hens} bottom-up [C2]$^{\dagger}$ vs 3.4--3.5M official (Dec 2022 census) [MPI]. $\approx$300 eggs/layer/yr; pullet stock runs in parallel ($\approx$0.7--0.8M birds in rearing) [HM/EF]. Four MPI housing systems -- mix and transition in \textbf{Panel B}. Fragmented: top-5 tracked producers $\approx$62\%, $>$30-producer long tail [HP] -- roster in \textbf{Panel C}.};
\draw[mini,fill=hoak!14,draw=hoak] (98.5,300.8) rectangle (175.5,317);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=73mm] at (99,316.4)
  {\textbf{Aurora (target):} 2 sites, $\approx$610k hens -- Waikato (colony + barn + free-range) and Canterbury (barn + free-range, own grading) [TM/web]. Mix 40 / 30 / 30 colony / barn / free-range; largest single colony block of the top six ($\approx$244k birds) [C1/C2].};

% ---- Stage 3: grading & packing ----
\draw[stage] (185,300) rectangle (243,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (186.5,357) {3\ \ Grading \& packing};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=54mm] at (186,354.5)
  {Candling, sizing, carton pack; on-farm at scale producers. Automation gap: first vision-graded line commissioned by Zeagold (Hamilton, Jun 2025) [HP]. Grading seconds 4--6\% of throughput route to industrial [VA]. OEE mid-pack 65--70\% vs 80\%+ top quartile [PA].};
\draw[mini,fill=hoak!14,draw=hoak] (186.5,300.8) rectangle (241.5,313);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=51mm] at (187,312.4)
  {\textbf{Aurora:} grades + packs on both farms; no vision-grading automation [C3/C6].};

% ---- Stage 4: branding & sales ----
\draw[stage] (251,300) rectangle (311,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (252.5,357) {4\ \ Branding \& sales};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=56mm] at (252,354.5)
  {\textbf{Branded} (producer label) vs \textbf{private label} (retailer tender: Pams / Pams Finest via Foodstuffs Own Brands; Woolworths house + Macro Free Range). PL gate 12--18\% below branded; 3-yr tender cycles [VA/C4]. Trade spend on branded SKUs 4--7\% of retail revenue, netted in gate [VA]. Category captaincy sits here: Mainland holds it at both retailers [C4/C6].};
\draw[mini,fill=hoak!14,draw=hoak] (252.5,300.8) rectangle (309.5,313);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=53mm] at (253,312.4)
  {\textbf{Aurora:} Sunbright Free Range brand + secondary label; $\approx$50\% of retail volume is PL$^{\dagger}$ [VA]. No captaincy.};

% ---- Stage 5: distribution intermediaries ----
\draw[stage] (319,300) rectangle (387,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (320.5,357) {5\ \ Distribution layer};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (321,336) rectangle (385,353.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=60mm,inner sep=0.6mm] at (321.5,353.2)
  {\textbf{Retailer DCs} -- Foodstuffs NI / SI co-op DCs; Woolworths NZ national DC network. Producer delivers to DC; retailer controls shelf [VA/NZCC].};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (321,318.5) rectangle (385,335);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=60mm,inner sep=0.6mm] at (321.5,334.7)
  {\textbf{Foodservice distributors} -- Bidfood ($\approx$24 branches, dominant), Service Foods, Gilmours (Foodstuffs-related), Toops; +12--18\% margin layer on gate; spec-driven, producer brand opaque [VA/CT].};
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (321,301) rectangle (385,317);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=60mm,inner sep=0.6mm] at (321.5,316.7)
  {\textbf{Breakers / processors} -- liquid \& dried egg for manufacturers; +10--15\% on gate. No Aurora egg-products division (Zeagold and Mainland play here) [VA/C6].};

% ---- Stage 6: channels ----
\draw[stage] (395,300) rectangle (499,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (396.5,357) {6\ \ Channels (\% of national volume) [C1/C3]};
% retail
\draw[mini,fill=hsteel!16,draw=hsteel] (397,326.5) rectangle (492,353.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=90mm,inner sep=0.6mm] at (397.5,353.2)
  {\textbf{Retail grocery 70--75\%} -- duopoly gate. \textbf{Foodstuffs} (Pak'nSave + New World; $\approx$54\% of retail egg volume) and \textbf{Woolworths NZ} (Countdown; $\approx$46\%) [RIQ]; together $\approx$70--80\% of NZ grocery [NZCC/RC]. Costco NZ + independents: trace; no published cage-free deadline [RC/RIQ]. Both majors pledged cage-free shelves -- binding gate is Foodstuffs end-2027 (Panel B).};
% foodservice
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (397,317.5) rectangle (492,325.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=90mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (397.5,325.2)
  {\textbf{Foodservice 12--15\%} -- cafes, hotels, QSR via distributors; barn gate USD 2.26--2.50 (NZD 3.80--4.20)/doz [VA/CT].};
% industrial
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (397,309) rectangle (492,316.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=90mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (397.5,316.2)
  {\textbf{Industrial 8--10\%} -- bakeries, mayonnaise, processors; gate USD 1.90--2.14 (NZD 3.20--3.60); thinnest producer EBITDA USD 0.15--0.24 (NZD 0.25--0.40)/doz; absorbs grading seconds [VA/C3].};
% institutional
\draw[mini,fill=hsnow!35] (397,303) rectangle (492,308);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=90mm,inner sep=0.4mm] at (397.5,307.8)
  {\textbf{Institutional \& own-use 4--6\%} -- schools, hospitals, prisons, defence, farm own-use; invisible to retail-only sizing [C3].};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=90mm,inner sep=0.4mm] at (397.5,302.4)
  {\textbf{Direct 2--3\%} -- farmgate, farmers' markets, DTC; premium-priced; bypasses stages 3--5 [C1].};
% proportional strip at right edge of channel box (top-to-bottom = box order)
\begin{scope}
  % total height 53.3mm for 100% => 0.533 mm per % ; top at 354.8
  \fill[hsteel!75] (494,316.2) rectangle (497,354.8);   % retail 72.5
  \fill[hmist!85]  (494,309.0) rectangle (497,316.2);   % foodservice 13.5
  \fill[hsand]     (494,304.2) rectangle (497,309.0);   % industrial 9
  \fill[hsage]     (494,301.5) rectangle (497,304.2);   % institutional 5
  \fill[hbronze!80](494,300.2) rectangle (497,301.5);   % direct 2.5
  \draw[hslate!60,line width=0.3pt] (494,300.2) rectangle (497,354.8);
\end{scope}

% ---- Stage 7: consumers ----
\draw[stage] (507,300) rectangle (571,360);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (508.5,357) {7\ \ Consumers};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=60mm] at (508,354.5)
  {Population 5.22M, +0.9\%/yr [TSY]. \textbf{229 eggs/person/yr}, up from $\approx$220 (2015) [HM]. Dietary mix is a tailwind, not a headwind: flexitarians (21\% of adults) eat $\approx$242 eggs/yr vs 224 omnivore; vegetarians 263 [C5/ACII]. Plant-based substitutes $<$1\% of category value [HM]. Premiumisation continues; cost-of-living trade-down pressures the free-range tier (Panel E-4).};

% ---- flow arrows between stages ----
\draw[flow] (89,341) -- (97,341);
\draw[flow] (177,330) -- (185,330);
\draw[flow] (243,330) -- (251,330);
\draw[flow] (311,330) -- (319,330);
\draw[flow] (387,345) -- (395,345);
\draw[flow] (387,321.5) -- (395,321.5);
\draw[flow] (387,309) -- (395,312.5);
\draw[flow] (499,330) -- (507,330);

% ---- integration span brackets ----
\draw[decorate,decoration={brace,mirror,amplitude=1.8mm},hnavy,line width=0.9pt] (3,297.5) -- (499,297.5);
\node[anchor=north,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (251,294.8)
  {Mainland Poultry: full 7-stage stack -- captive breeder/rearing, MainFeeds (3 mills, $\approx$140kt/yr), grow-out (1.2M birds, 7 farms), grading, Farmer Brown + Woodland brands, egg-products, category captaincy at both retailers [CA/C6/HP]};
\draw[decorate,decoration={brace,mirror,amplitude=1.8mm},hoak,line width=1.1pt] (97,290.5) -- (311,290.5);
\node[anchor=north,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hoak!60!black] at (204,287.8)
  {\textbf{Aurora Eggs (target): mid-stack, 4 of 7 stages} -- grow-out, grading + pack, branded label; buys feed and pullets externally; no egg-products division; no category captaincy. \#2 by volume, \#4--5 by integration depth [C6/CA]};

% ---- profit pool band ----
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (4,281.5) {Profit pool -- share of retail value chain [PA]:};
\draw[mini,fill=hsage!28] (97,276.5) rectangle (177,283.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (137,280) {producer 30--40\%};
\draw[mini,fill=hsage!18] (185,276.5) rectangle (243,283.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (214,280) {grader / packer 10--15\%};
\draw[mini,fill=hsage!18] (319,276.5) rectangle (387,283.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (353,280) {distributor 8--12\%};
\draw[mini,fill=hsteel!30,draw=hsteel] (395,276.5) rectangle (499,283.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (447,280) {retailer 35--50\% -- the largest pool};
\node[body,anchor=west,text width=88mm,inner sep=0pt] at (252,280)
  {branded margin accrues to the producer tier; private label transfers it to the retailer tier [VA]};
\node[body,anchor=west,text width=66mm,inner sep=0pt] at (504,280.3)
  {``Retail is structurally the highest-margin step... producer is asset-heavy, capital-intensive'' -- retailer EBITDA/dozen $\approx$2.5$\times$ producer's [C4]};

% ---- unit economics strip ----
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (4,271.6) {Unit economics, USD (NZD) per dozen, retail channel FY26 [VA/C4]:};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny,text=hcoal,inner sep=0pt] at (97,271.6)
  {\textbf{free-range}: gate 3.21 (5.40) $\to$ shelf 5.06 (8.50); producer EBITDA 0.39--0.51 (0.65--0.85); retailer net 1.19 (2.00)\ \ $\vert$\ \ \textbf{barn}: gate 2.62--2.74 (4.40--4.60) $\to$ shelf 4.17 (7.00); producer 0.30--0.39 (0.50--0.65); retailer 0.92 (1.55)\ \ $\vert$\ \ \textbf{colony}: gate 1.96--2.08 (3.30--3.50) $\to$ shelf 3.33 (5.60); producer 0.21--0.30 (0.35--0.50); retailer 0.77 (1.30)\ \ $\vert$\ \ producer EBITDA margin 8--15\%, cluster 10--12\% [PA]};

% ====================================================================
% PANEL B -- PRODUCTION SYSTEMS & CAGE-BAN TRANSITION
% ====================================================================
\draw[panel] (0,86) rectangle (230,262);
\node[phead] at (4,257.2) {B\ \ $\vert$\ \ Production systems (MPI taxonomy) \& the two-phase transition};

% --- key-events strip (evenly spaced; sequence, not to scale) ---
\draw[hslate!70,line width=0.5pt,-{Triangle[length=2mm,width=1.8mm]}] (6,246.5) -- (227,246.5);
\foreach \x in {12,45.4,78.8,112.2,145.6,179,212.4} {\draw[hslate,line width=0.55pt] (\x,245.4) -- (\x,247.6);}
\node[srct,anchor=south west,text width=30mm,align=left] at (3,248) {\textbf{2012} -- layer-hen Code of Welfare starts battery phase-out [MPI]};
\node[srct,anchor=south,text width=30mm,align=center] at (45.4,248) {\textbf{31 Dec 2022} -- battery ban complete; flock census 33/33/34 [MPI]};
\node[srct,anchor=south,text width=30mm,align=center] at (78.8,248) {\textbf{Jan 2023} -- Foodstuffs + Woolworths pledge cage-free by end-2027 [RC]};
\node[srct,anchor=south,text width=30mm,align=center] at (112.2,248) {\textbf{Nov--Dec 2024} -- H7N6 Otago; single property culled [WOAH]};
\node[srct,anchor=south,text width=30mm,align=center] at (145.6,248) {\textbf{2025} -- HPAI-free eff. 24 Apr; WOAH self-decl. 12 Sep [WOAH]};
\node[srct,anchor=south,text width=30mm,align=center] at (179,248) {\textbf{Q2 2026} -- Woolworths shelf colony exit completes$^{\dagger}$ [RIQ/RC]};
\node[srct,anchor=south east,text width=31mm,align=right] at (228,248) {\textbf{31 Dec 2027} -- Foodstuffs deadline; colony delisted 1 Jan 2028, no grace [RC/C3]};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.2}{5}\selectfont,text=hslate!90] at (227,243.6) {key events (sequence; spacing not to scale)};

% --- system boxes: 2 top + 3 bottom ---
% conventional (top-left)
\draw[stage,fill=colgone,draw=hcoal!60] (4,214) rectangle (104,240);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (5.5,237) {Conventional cage -- prohibited};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=96mm] at (5,234.2)
  {3--7 hens/cage. Banned from 31 Dec 2022 under the Animal Welfare (Layer Hens) Code of Welfare pathway (Phase 1, \textbf{regulatory}) [MPI/HM]. 0\% of flock today; most Phase 1 birds moved into colony, some direct to barn / free-range [C2].};
% colony (top-right)
\draw[stage,fill=colcolony!38,draw=hbronze] (124,214) rectangle (226,240);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (125.5,237) {Colony (enriched cage) -- legal, but losing shelf};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=98mm] at (125,234.2)
  {$\le$60 hens/colony; perch / nest / scratch [MPI]. Still lawful -- but loses packaged-shelf access at major retail end-2027 (Phase 2, \textbf{retailer-driven}) [RC/HM]. FY26 $\approx$40\% of flock$^{\dagger}$ [C1] yet only $\approx$8\% of retail shelf volume (Q1 26) [RIQ]: colony increasingly routes to non-retail channels. Gate USD 1.96--2.08 (NZD 3.30--3.50)/doz [VA].};
% phase 1 arrow + labels in the inter-column gap
\draw[trans] (104,228) -- (124,228);
\node[font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hbronze!80!black,text width=19mm,align=center] at (114,233.2) {Phase 1 (regulatory)};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.4}{5.2}\selectfont,text=hbronze!80!black,text width=19mm,align=center] at (114,222.6) {battery out 31 Dec 2022; $\approx$1:1 bird swap [C2]};
% barn (bottom-left)
\draw[stage,fill=colbarn!45,draw=hsand!80!black] (4,176) rectangle (86,208);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (5.5,205) {Barn -- cage-free commodity};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=78mm] at (5,202.2)
  {Indoor, cage-free, $\le$9 hens/m$^2$ [MPI]. Cheapest conversion landing zone; the supply force compressing the free-range premium [C1/C3]. FY26 $\approx$20\% of flock$^{\dagger}$ [C1]; 27\% of retail shelf volume [RIQ]. Gate USD 2.62--2.74 (NZD 4.40--4.60)/doz [VA]. Value-end import competition from AU barn-grade product [C2/HM].};
% free-range (bottom-middle)
\draw[stage,fill=colfr!45,draw=hsage!80!black] (90,176) rectangle (174,208);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (91.5,205) {Free-range -- cage-free premium};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=80mm] at (91,202.2)
  {Barn housing + daylight outdoor range via pop-holes, $\le$2,500 hens/ha [MPI]. Largest segment FY26: $\approx$40\% of flock$^{\dagger}$ [C1]; 55\% of retail shelf volume [RIQ]. Gate USD 3.21 (NZD 5.40)/doz; premium over barn compressing (Panel E-4) [VA/C3].};
\draw[mini,fill=colpast!22,draw=hsteel] (91.5,177) rectangle (172.5,186.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=77mm,inner sep=0.5mm] at (92,186.2)
  {\textbf{Sub-tiers on free-range housing} (not separate systems): pasture-raised / organic / omega-3 -- $\approx$9\% of retail volume, $\approx$1.6$\times$ free-range shelf price, inelastic demand [RIQ/C6].};
% exit (bottom-right)
\draw[stage,fill=hsnow!80,draw=hslate!70,dashed] (178,176) rectangle (226,208);
\node[stitle,anchor=west] at (179.5,205) {Market exit};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=44mm] at (179,202.2)
  {Non-converting long tail: 25--30 colony operators $<$50k birds; per-bird capex uneconomic at their scale; 6--10 exits expected by FY28 via sale, consolidation or wind-down -- share redistributes to converters [C2/C6/HM].};
% phase 2 arrows from colony bottom into the three boxes
\draw[trans] (138,214) -- (50,208);
\draw[trans] (170,214) -- (132,208);
\draw[transthin,dashed] (205,214) -- (202,208);
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hbronze!80!black] at (4,211) {Phase 2 (retailer-driven): convert or exit by end-2027 [RC/HM]};
% phase 2 economics paragraph
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=222mm,inner sep=0pt] at (4,172.8)
  {\textbf{Phase 2 economics:} conversion capex \textbf{USD 27--39 (NZD 45--65) per bird} [C2/HM/HP]. Barn = capex-light, commodity gate; free-range = capex-heavy, premium gate + range land and consenting [C1]. Return on conversion capex is \textbf{continued market access}, not incremental margin -- the margin case requires bundling automation into the new build [C2].};

% --- mix evolution bars ---
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (4,163.6) {Housing-system mix: official baseline vs current-era reads (\% of layer flock / retail volume)};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (4,160.3) {Dec 2022 flock census -- official, stale; EPF republishes unchanged; next census 2027 [MPI/HM]};
\begin{scope}
\fill[colcolony] (4,153.9) rectangle (77.3,157.9);  \fill[colbarn] (77.3,153.9) rectangle (150.6,157.9); \fill[colfr] (150.6,153.9) rectangle (226,157.9);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (4,153.9) rectangle (226,157.9);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white] at (40,155.9) {colony 33\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (114,155.9) {barn 33\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (188,155.9) {free-range 34\%};
\end{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (4,150.6) {FY26 current-era read$^{\dagger}$ -- market-side estimate, producer self-report caveat; not in any official series [C1/AA]};
\begin{scope}
\fill[colcolony] (4,144.2) rectangle (92.8,148.2); \fill[colbarn] (92.8,144.2) rectangle (137.2,148.2); \fill[colfr] (137.2,144.2) rectangle (226,148.2);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (4,144.2) rectangle (226,148.2);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white] at (48,146.2) {colony $\approx$40\%$^{\dagger}$};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (115,146.2) {barn $\approx$20\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (180,146.2) {free-range $\approx$40\%};
\end{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (4,140.9) {Q1 2026 retail shelf volume -- scan data; shelf mix runs ahead of flock mix; the retail gate is closing first [RIQ]};
\begin{scope}
\fill[colcolony] (4,134.5) rectangle (22.5,138.5); \fill[colbarn] (22.5,134.5) rectangle (82.4,138.5); \fill[colfr] (82.4,134.5) rectangle (205,138.5); \fill[colpast] (205,134.5) rectangle (226,138.5);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (4,134.5) rectangle (226,138.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white] at (13.2,136.5) {8\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (52,136.5) {barn 27\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (143,136.5) {free-range 55\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white] at (215.5,136.5) {9\%};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.4}{5}\selectfont,text=hslate,anchor=east] at (226,132.7) {pasture sub-tier};
\end{scope}

% --- conversion runway gantt ---
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (4,129.6) {Colony-to-barn conversion runway vs the deadline (months from a standing start) [C3/HM]};
\begin{scope}
\draw[hslate!60,line width=0.3pt] (8,103.6) -- (218,103.6);
\foreach \m in {0,6,12,18,24,30} {\draw[hslate!60,line width=0.3pt] (8+7*\m,102.7) -- (8+7*\m,104.5); \node[font=\fontsize{4.4}{5}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (8+7*\m,101.2) {\m\,mo};}
\fill[hslate!75] (8,121.6) rectangle (50,125.6); \node[font=\tiny,text=white] at (29,123.6) {consents 4--6 mo};
\fill[hbronze!85] (50,115.2) rectangle (176,119.2); \node[font=\tiny,text=white] at (113,117.2) {physical build 12--18 mo (after consents)};
\fill[hmist!95] (64,108.8) rectangle (127,112.8); \node[font=\tiny,text=hcoal] at (95.5,110.8) {day-old-chick / pullet supply 6--9 mo (parallel)};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (180,117.2) {end-to-end 24--30 mo};
\draw[hbronze,dashed,line width=0.9pt] (141,100.4) -- (141,127.4);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hbronze!85!black,anchor=west,align=left] at (143,124.6) {31 Dec 2027 deadline sits\\$\approx$19 mo out (from May 2026)};
\end{scope}
% implication paragraph
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=222mm,inner sep=0pt] at (4,98.4)
  {\textbf{Implication:} a converter starting consents now lands 2028+; making end-2027 requires consents lodged $\approx$6--12 months ago [C3]. \textbf{Aurora bridge is contested}$^{\dagger}$: seller materials state consents ``in active progress'', build from Q3 2026, capex USD 5--6M (NZD 8--10M) [IM/TM] -- vs no lodgement found in public RMA registers (Selwyn DC + Waikato DC, checked 11 May 2026) and a benchmark build cost of USD 7--10M (NZD 11--16M) at USD 27--39/bird [C3/C2]. Calthorpe: 50/50 make-or-slip if planning has quietly started; 0\% if starting now. \textbf{Confirmatory question \#1: consent lodgement evidence.} Slip economics: Panel E-7.};

% ====================================================================
% PANEL C -- PRODUCER LANDSCAPE
% ====================================================================
\draw[panel] (236,156) rectangle (574,262);
\node[phead] at (240,257.2) {C\ \ $\vert$\ \ Producer landscape: scale (volume share), housing exposure, ownership \& integration};
\node[anchor=east,font=\tiny,text=hslate] at (570,257.4) {FY26 central case, national flock $\approx$3.75M [C2]; revenue FY24 estimates [HP/CA]};

% column headers + share scale gridlines (4.9mm per % point from x=330)
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hslate] at (240,252.2) {PRODUCER / OWNERSHIP / STRUCTURE};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hslate] at (330,252.2) {VOLUME SHARE (bar length) \& HOUSING SPLIT (fill)};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hslate] at (482,252.2) {SCALE \& QUALITY READ};
\draw[hslate!30,line width=0.3pt,dash pattern=on 0.6mm off 0.8mm] (379,166.5) -- (379,250);
\draw[hslate!30,line width=0.3pt,dash pattern=on 0.6mm off 0.8mm] (428,166.5) -- (428,250);
\node[font=\fontsize{4.2}{5}\selectfont,text=hslate!80] at (379,165) {10\%};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.2}{5}\selectfont,text=hslate!80] at (428,165) {20\%};

% MAINLAND 27%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,247) {Mainland Poultry};
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (290,247) {PEP-controlled};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,247) {7/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=88mm] at (240,242.6) {\#1; PEP (Jan 2025, $\approx$7.0--7.5$\times$; ex-Navis 2017, $\approx$6.5$\times$); category captain at both retailers $\bigstar$; brand:PL $\approx$70:30; Phase 2 capex funded [HP/C6]};
\fill[colcolony] (330,243.7) rectangle (349.8,250.3);
\fill[colcf] (349.8,243.7) rectangle (462.3,250.3);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,243.7) rectangle (462.3,250.3);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (464,247) {27\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,248.6) {$\approx$85\% cage-free [C2]; rev USD 144M (NZD 240M); EBITDA 14--16\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,245.2) {price leader; 60S/40N dual-island, 17 sites; lowest biosecurity concentration [C6/CA]};
\end{scope}

% AURORA 18%
\begin{scope}
\draw[hoak,line width=1.2pt,rounded corners=1.2mm,fill=hoak!10] (238,228.2) rectangle (572,240.2);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hoak!55!black] at (240,236.6) {Aurora Eggs};
\node[chip,fill=hoak,text=white,anchor=west] at (262,236.6) {TARGET};
\node[chip,fill=hbronze!22,draw=hbronze,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (290,236.6) {family -- chair succession open};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,232.2) {4/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal,text width=70mm] at (240,232.2) {\#2; McKenna family (3rd gen), in sale process now; brand:PL $\approx$50:50 -- most PL-exposed of top-5 ex Zeagold [C6/VA]};
\fill[colcolony] (330,230.5) rectangle (365.3,237.1);
\fill[colbarn] (365.3,230.5) rectangle (391.7,237.1);
\fill[colfr] (391.7,230.5) rectangle (418.2,237.1);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,230.5) rectangle (418.2,237.1);
\node[font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont\bfseries,text=white] at (347,233.8) {colony 40\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hoak!55!black] at (420,233.8) {$\approx$18\%$^{\dagger}$ (17--19)};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,238.2) {60\% cage-free; rev USD 50.9M (NZD 84.6M) FY24A; EBITDA 12.8\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,234.8) {largest single colony block of top-6 ($\approx$244k birds); 2 sites; not in analyst coverage --};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,231.6) {share triangulated, additive to tracked roster [C1/C2/HP]};
\end{scope}

% HEYDEN 13%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,224) {Heyden Farms};
\node[chip,fill=hbronze!22,draw=hbronze,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (290,224) {family -- succession overhang};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,219.6) {4/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=70mm] at (240,219.6) {\#3; Heyden whanau; Q4 2025 strategic review (sale / recap unconfirmed); brand:PL $\approx$55:45 [HP/C6]};
\fill[colcolony] (330,217.9) rectangle (363.4,224.5);
\fill[colcf] (363.4,217.9) rectangle (393.7,224.5);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,217.9) rectangle (393.7,224.5);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (395.7,221.2) {13\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,225.6) {$\approx$45--50\% cage-free -- behind cohort [C2]; rev USD 65M (NZD 108M); 11--13\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,222.2) {South Island concentrated (Christchurch); industrial-heavier mix than Aurora [C3/C6]};
\end{scope}

% BETTER EGGS 9%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,211.8) {Better Eggs};
\node[chip,fill=hsage!30,draw=hsage!80!black,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (290,211.8) {family -- stable};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,207.4) {4--5/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=70mm] at (240,207.4) {\#4; Anderson family; consolidator (Smith farms tuck-in 2023, 5--6$\times$); deepest specialty bench; brand:PL $\approx$60:40 [HP/C6]};
\fill[colcolony] (330,205.7) rectangle (345.4,212.3);
\fill[colcf] (345.4,205.7) rectangle (374.1,212.3);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,205.7) rectangle (374.1,212.3);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (376.1,209) {9\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,213.4) {$\approx$65\% cage-free [C2]; rev USD 47M (NZD 78M); EBITDA 10--12\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,210) {North Island + Hawke's Bay; pasture-raised / organic / omega-3 SKUs [C6]};
\end{scope}

% ZEAGOLD 7%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,199.6) {Zeagold Foods};
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (290,199.6) {PEP-controlled};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,195.2) {4--5/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=70mm] at (240,195.2) {eggs division of Mainland (ownership tracks PEP); egg-products adjacency; Farmer Brown / Woodland brands; first vision-graded line (Hamilton, Jun 2025); $\approx$30:70 branded:other (industrial-weighted) [HP/C6]};
\fill[colcolony] (330,193.5) rectangle (339.4,200.1);
\fill[colcf] (339.4,193.5) rectangle (364.3,200.1);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,193.5) rectangle (364.3,200.1);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (366.3,196.8) {7\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,201.2) {$\approx$70--75\% cage-free [C2]; rev USD 37M (NZD 62M); EBITDA 13--15\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,197.8) {not separately acquirable; Mainland platform combined $\approx$34\% share [HP/C6]};
\end{scope}

% HENERGY 6%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,187.4) {Henergy Cage Free};
\node[chip,fill=hsteel!16,draw=hsteel,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (290,187.4) {founder-led};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (313,183) {4/7 stages};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=70mm] at (240,183) {\#6; Wilson family, long-hold; pure-play free-range; brand-skewed $\approx$75:25 [HP/C6]};
\fill[colfr] (330,181.3) rectangle (359.4,187.9);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,181.3) rectangle (359.4,187.9);
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (361.4,184.6) {6\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,189) {$\approx$100\% cage-free -- no Phase 2 exposure [C2]; rev USD 29M (NZD 48M); 9--11\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,185.6) {Cambridge (Waikato); welfare-positioning differentiation [HP/C6]};
\end{scope}

% LONG TAIL 20%
\begin{scope}
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,175.2) {Long tail \& specialty};
\node[chip,fill=hsnow,draw=hslate!60,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (290,175.2) {$>$30 producers};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=86mm] at (240,170.8) {25--30 colony operators $<$50k birds at exit risk; specialty / pasture cohort (Hens-on-Pasture, Tasman Egg Co., Otago + Waikato boutiques) $\approx$150--200k birds [C2/C6/HM]};
\fill[hsnow!90,draw=hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (330,169.1) rectangle (428,175.7);
\node[font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (379,172.4) {housing mix varies; conversion capex out of reach for many};
\node[anchor=west,font=\scriptsize\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (430,172.4) {$\approx$20\%};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (482,176.8) {rev USD 169--199M (NZD 280--330M) combined [HP]};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (482,173.4) {Phase 2 rationalisation pressure: tuck-in / co-op formation watch [C6/HP]};
\end{scope}

% legend + footnote
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (240,162.6) {\textbf{Bar fill:}};
\fill[colcolony] (252,161.4) rectangle (256,163.9); \node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (256.6,162.6) {colony};
\fill[colbarn] (268,161.4) rectangle (272,163.9); \node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (272.6,162.6) {barn};
\fill[colfr] (281,161.4) rectangle (285,163.9); \node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (285.6,162.6) {free-range};
\fill[colcf] (302,161.4) rectangle (306,163.9); \node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (306.6,162.6) {cage-free (barn/FR split not disclosed)};
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=205mm] at (365,160.8)
  {Ownership classes per [C6]: PEP-controlled funds Phase 2 fastest; family with succession / chair overhang (Heyden, Aurora) moves slower on capex; family-stable (Better Eggs); founder-led (Henergy). Sale-process eligibility 2--3 yrs: Aurora (in process), Heyden (likely); others unlikely. Shares are \% of national flock; Aurora reads $\approx$22--23\% through a retail-only lens (Panel D) [C3].};

% ====================================================================
% PANEL D -- CHANNELS & MARKET SIZING
% ====================================================================
\draw[panel] (236,86) rectangle (574,150);
\node[phead] at (240,145.4) {D\ \ $\vert$\ \ Channel structure \& market size: two valid answers, one structural gap};

% left: channel split bar (x 240..424.5 => 1.8mm per %)
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (240,140.2) {National volume by channel, FY26 (MECE; producer-side cut) [C1/C3]};
\begin{scope}
\fill[hsteel!75] (240,130) rectangle (370.5,136.5);
\fill[hmist!85] (370.5,130) rectangle (394.8,136.5);
\fill[hsand]    (394.8,130) rectangle (411,136.5);
\fill[hsage]    (411,130) rectangle (420,136.5);
\fill[hbronze!80] (420,130) rectangle (424.5,136.5);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (240,130) rectangle (424.5,136.5);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white] at (305,133.2) {retail grocery 70--75\%};
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (382.6,133.2) {f'service};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.4}{5}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hcoal] at (402.9,133.2) {indust.};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (424.5,127.2) {foodservice 12--15\% $\cdot$ industrial 8--10\%};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hcoal] at (424.5,123.8) {institutional \& own-use 4--6\% $\cdot$ direct 2--3\%};
\end{scope}
% retail sub split
\begin{scope}
\fill[hsteel!45] (240,114.5) rectangle (310.7,119.5);
\fill[hsteel!28] (310.7,114.5) rectangle (370.5,119.5);
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt] (240,114.5) rectangle (370.5,119.5);
\node[font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (275,117) {Foodstuffs $\approx$54\% of retail eggs};
\node[font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (340,117) {Woolworths NZ $\approx$46\%};
\draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt,dashed] (240,119.5) -- (240,130); \draw[hslate!50,line width=0.3pt,dashed] (370.5,119.5) -- (370.5,130);
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=132mm] at (240,111.2) {within-retail split of egg volume, Q1 2026 scan [RIQ]; Costco + independents trace. Duopoly $\approx$70--80\% of grocery volume [NZCC/RC]; $\approx$83\% of supermarket revenues [USDA].};
\end{scope}
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=182mm,inner sep=0pt] at (240,107.2)
  {\textbf{Taxonomy note:} EPF public stats run a 3-channel cut -- retail 70--75\%, ``commercial'' (foodservice + industrial, merged) 22--25\%, direct 2--3\% [HM]. Producer-side practice splits foodservice from industrial: different customers, contracts and price discipline [C1]. This map uses the 4-channel producer cut, plus institutional \& own-use surfaced by the sizing reconciliation (right).};
% Aurora chip
\draw[mini,fill=hoak!12,draw=hoak] (240,88.5) rectangle (424.5,99.5);
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=178mm,inner sep=0.7mm] at (241,99.2)
  {\textbf{Target lens -- Aurora channel mix:} retail $\approx$72\% / foodservice $\approx$22\% / industrial $\approx$5\% [C2]; broker states 70 / 25 / 5 [TM]. Heavier retail than the market: 18\% of national volume reads as $\approx$22--23\% of the retail channel [C3]. Foodstuffs supply agreement extended through 2030, colony covered ``during the transition period'' [web]. Foodservice book mid-tier hospitality / QSR; industrial one mayonnaise contract [C2].};

% right: sizing reconciliation
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (432,140.2) {Top-down vs bottom-up sizing -- surface the gap, do not normalise it [C3]};
\begin{scope}
\fill[hsteel!60] (432,130.5) rectangle (517,136);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=white,anchor=west] at (434,133.2) {top-down: retail channel only};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (519,133.2) {USD 274M (NZD 455M) FY24 [AA]};
\fill[hsage!85] (432,121.5) rectangle (531.5,127);
\node[font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hcoal,anchor=west] at (434,124.2) {bottom-up: all-channel production value};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (533.5,124.2) {USD 321M (NZD 540M) [C3]};
\draw[hbronze,dashed,line width=0.7pt] (517,120.5) -- (517,137.2);
\node[anchor=west,font=\fontsize{4.8}{5.6}\selectfont\bfseries,text=hbronze!85!black] at (518.5,128.9) {+$\approx$19\% structural gap};
\end{scope}
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=138mm,inner sep=0pt] at (432,118.6)
  {\textbf{$\approx$19\% gap is structural, not error:} foodservice (12--15\% of volume) + industrial (8--10\%) + institutional \& own-use (4--6\%) never touch a retail price point [C3]. Method: top-down = 5.22M people $\times$ 229 eggs $\times$ retail pricing, backed to wholesale at the 1.33--1.54 shelf-over-gate markup factor [AA/TSY/HM/NZCC]; bottom-up = 3.75M hens $\times$ $\approx$300 eggs $\times$ 90\% utilisation $\times$ channel-weighted gate prices [C3]. Use bottom-up for volume share, top-down for retail-channel share (standards section 2.1).};
\node[body,anchor=north west,text width=138mm,inner sep=0pt] at (432,99.8)
  {\textbf{Industry trajectory:} volume flat to slightly down, $-$0.7\%/yr through 2025--26; revenue modestly up on premium-tier mix [HM/AA]. Forward demand drivers: population +0.9\%/yr [TSY] and per-capita drift +0.4--0.5\%/yr on dietary mix [C5/ACII]. FX: FY24 at 0.602, FY26 at 0.595 USD per NZD [CFA].};

% ====================================================================
% PANEL E -- CROSS-STAGE COMMERCIAL DYNAMICS
% ====================================================================
\draw[panel] (0,16) rectangle (574,82);
\node[phead] at (4,77.4) {E\ \ $\vert$\ \ Cross-stage commercial dynamics bearing on a producer in Aurora's position (mid-stack, colony-heavy, retail-concentrated)};

% --- E1
\draw[mini] (3,46) rectangle (143,73.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (5,70.5) {E-1};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (14,70.5) {Duopoly buying power -- the channel gate};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (141,70.5) {[brand $\to$ retail]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (5,67.8)
  {Foodstuffs: co-op, two-layer buying -- national tenders (Foodstuffs Own Brands) + owner-operator ranging discretion (a national delist can leave 30--60 stores ranging via owners). Woolworths NZ: single national buyer; one decision delists nationally; extracts $\approx$3--5pp more producer-margin compression than Foodstuffs on like spec [VA/C4]. The two retailers' pledges are public commitments to consumers, not producer contracts: no exit notice, no compensation, no grace period [C3]. Payment terms 60--90 days sit against 30-day feed terms (E-6). Foodstuffs' end-2027 deadline therefore functions as de facto market-access regulation for $\approx$70--80\% of grocery volume [RC/NZCC].};
% --- E2
\draw[mini] (146,46) rectangle (286,73.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (148,70.5) {E-2};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (157,70.5) {Private-label exposure -- margin and cliff risk};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (284,70.5) {[branding \& sales]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (148,67.8)
  {PL gate runs 12--18\% below branded; producer EBITDA/doz roughly halves (free-range USD 0.39--0.51 branded vs 0.18--0.27 PL; NZD 0.65--0.85 vs 0.30--0.45) [VA]. Aurora blends $\approx$50\% PL$^{\dagger}$ (free-range $\approx$48\%, barn 55--65\%) -- consistent with its 12.8\% margin; a pure-branded comp implies 15--17\% [VA]. Pams tenders run 3-yr cycles; two Aurora PL lines re-tender inside 24 months; one Pams free-range loss $\approx$ USD 5--7M (NZD 8--12M) revenue cliff -- ``the single largest revenue-cliff risk for a half-PL producer'' [VA/C4]. \textbf{Confirmatory: tender calendar, trade-spend roll-up, cage-free clauses in supply contracts.}};
% --- E3
\draw[mini] (289,46) rectangle (429,73.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (291,70.5) {E-3};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (300,70.5) {Category captaincy \& price leadership};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (427,70.5) {[producer $\to$ retail]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (291,67.8)
  {Mainland holds category-captain status at both retailers: planogram influence, range reviews, $\approx$1--2pp share-of-shelf advantage [VA/C6]. ``\#2 with 18\% against a \#1 at 27\% means Mainland sets the price and Aurora follows... I'd treat the asset as a price-taker on the volume that matters'' [C4]. Mainland under PEP defends share aggressively through the Phase 2 window; a passive \#1 is not a planning assumption [C6]. Customer concentration read: top retail relationships $\approx$60--70\% of revenue$^{\dagger}$ [C1/C2] -- \textbf{confirmatory: audited top-10 split, incl. Foodstuffs NI vs SI}.};
% --- E4
\draw[mini] (432,46) rectangle (572,73.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (434,70.5) {E-4};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (443,70.5) {Free-range premium compression};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (570,70.5) {[pricing, cross-tier]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (434,67.8)
  {Wholesale-gate premium over barn: $\approx$30\% historical (Phase 1 era) $\to$ 18\% FY26 $\to$ 14\% FY27 $\to$ 12\% FY28 central; downside 8--10\%, upside 14--15\% [C3]. Seller materials carry ``30\%+ ... expected to continue''$^{\dagger}$ [TM/IM]; retail buyers are locking narrower premiums into barn-supply deals now [C3]. Mechanism: barn capacity scaling into the colony exit gap; barn$\leftrightarrow$free-range cross-price elasticity 0.62--0.71 is the strongest in the category, and free-range is the most promo-exposed tier (62--69\% of weeks on promo) [RIQ]. Long-tail exits tighten supply modestly: worth $\approx$2pp on the FY28 premium [C3].};
% --- E5
\draw[mini] (3,18) rectangle (143,44.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (5,41.5) {E-5};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (14,41.5) {Conversion capacity race -- common-mode bottlenecks};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (141,41.5) {[inputs $\to$ production]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (5,38.8)
  {The whole colony cohort converts against the same deadline: equipment lead 9--14 mo (Big Dutchman / Vencomatic / Salmet); day-old-chick / pullet supply 6--9 mo with NZ + AU breeders near capacity (Northern Hylines; EW Group $\approx$75--80\% of global genetics); consents 4--6 mo [C7/HM]. Capex USD 27--39 (NZD 45--65)/bird [C2/HM/HP]. Capital availability splits the cohort: PEP-controlled fund fastest; family balance sheets are stretched; the long tail exits [C6]. Phase 2 needs more birds per egg (lower stocking density): flock grows while output stays flat [C2].};
% --- E6
\draw[mini] (146,18) rectangle (286,44.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (148,41.5) {E-6};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (157,41.5) {Input pass-through \& working capital};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (284,41.5) {[inputs $\to$ producer]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (148,38.8)
  {Feed = 55--65\% of variable cost, USD 1.10--1.25 (NZD 1.85--2.10)/doz [C7]. Retail contract re-pricing lags 4--6 mo: a 10\% grain spike costs $\approx$80--110bps of margin for 1--2 quarters; no NZX grain futures, so integrated inventory (MainFeeds 8--10 wks + forward purchases) is the only effective hedge -- non-integrated producers (Aurora: 4--6 wks) carry the lag [C7/SA]. Electricity re-tariffs into post-2025 price levels in late 2027, as new barn load ramps: +18--22\% step, $\approx$150--220bps on colony/barn lines [C7/SA]. Receivables: retail 60--90d vs feed 30d $\approx$ 30 days funding gap, $\approx$USD 3M (NZD 5M) at target scale [VA].};
% --- E7
\draw[mini] (289,18) rectangle (429,44.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (291,41.5) {E-7};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (300,41.5) {Slip economics -- stranded colony volume};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (427,41.5) {[production $\to$ channels]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (291,38.8)
  {Colony volume still on farm at 1 Jan 2028 loses major-retail shelf access; foodservice and industrial are already supplied and cannot absorb a $\approx$244k-bird block ($\approx$70M eggs/yr) overnight [C3]. Re-routing from retail wholesale $\approx$NZD 0.50/egg to industrial $\approx$NZD 0.30/egg $\approx$ USD 8M (NZD 14M) revenue and \textbf{USD 1.8--2.4M (NZD 3--4M) EBITDA per slip year} -- against a USD 6.5M (NZD 10.8M) FY24 EBITDA base [C3]. The same arithmetic prices the colony-risk haircut between the 12--14$\times$ ask and clean cage-free multiples [C2/C3].};
% --- E8
\draw[mini] (432,18) rectangle (572,44.5);
\node[chip,fill=hnavy,text=white,anchor=west] at (434,41.5) {E-8};
\node[anchor=west,font=\tiny\bfseries,text=hnavy] at (443,41.5) {Imports, substitutes, biosecurity};
\node[anchor=east,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.4}\selectfont,text=hslate] at (570,41.5) {[channels, cross-cutting]};
\node[ebody,anchor=north west,text width=136mm] at (434,38.8)
  {AU barn-grade imports fill value-end demand spikes (Pak'nSave): margin pressure on colony / barn tiers; free-range + pasture insulated by freshness and local-sourcing preference [C2/HM]. Plant-based substitutes $<$1\% of category value [HM]. H7N6 (Otago, Nov--Dec 2024, single property) stamped out; HPAI-free effective 24 Apr 2025 (WOAH self-declaration 12 Sep 2025); FY25 carried a one-off 3--5\% biosecurity cost overlay, with protocols persisting [WOAH/HM/C2]. Concentration overlay: a two-site footprint carries step-change single-site event risk vs Mainland's 17-site spread [C6/CA].};

% ============================ FOOTER ====================================
\node[anchor=north west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=570mm,inner sep=0pt] at (2,13.5)
  {\textbf{Source key} (deal-team source pool): [C1--C8] R. Calthorpe expert interviews Parts 1--8, 6 May--5 Jun 2026; [HM] EPFNZ interview (H. Marsden), 7 May 2026; [CT] foodservice broker interview (C. Tanaka), 8 May 2026; [EF] retired operator interview (H. Calder), 4 Jun 2026; [HP] Hartley Pearce desk note hp-agri-nz-027, 28 Mar 2026; [AA] Antipodean Agri Research NZ eggs briefing, Q3 2025; [PA] Pacific Agri Advisory NZ shell-egg sector briefing FY24, Oct 2024; [RIQ] RetailIQ NZ retail scan, Q1 2026 (pull Q1 2026); [NZCC] NZ Commerce Commission grocery market study, 8 Mar 2022; [RC] NZ retailer cage-free commitments compilation, Sep 2025; [MPI] MPI / NAWAC layer-hen statistics, Dec 2022 census (stale; next refresh 2027); [TSY] NZ Treasury demographics note, 2024; [ACII] NZ dietary trends survey Wave 11, 2025; [USDA] USDA FAS NZ Retail Foods annual, 2024; [WOAH] NZ HPAI self-declaration, 12 Sep 2025; [TM] Tasman Mercantile sell-side outreach, 20 Apr 2026; [IM] Tasman Mercantile preliminary IM draft v0.4, 28 Feb 2026; [web] Aurora public website snapshot, 2026; [VA/CA/SA] Halberd value-chain / competitor / supplier annexes, 13 May--2 Jun 2026; [CFA] Halberd central financial assumptions, Apr 2026.};
\node[anchor=north west,font=\fontsize{4.6}{5.6}\selectfont,text=hslate,text width=570mm,inner sep=0pt] at (2,4.6)
  {\textbf{Conventions:} USD headline, NZD reference, per Halberd standards section 7; FY24 figures converted at 0.602 USD/NZD (FY2024 average), FY26 at 0.595 (house forecast) [CFA]. $\dagger$ marks figures or claims contested across sources -- each is a confirmatory-DD question, not a settled input. Preliminary outside-in CDD: descriptive assessment only; findings, risks and open questions are for the IC -- no investment recommendation is expressed. Prepared by the Project Albatross deal team, Halberd Capital Partners. Internal -- not for distribution.};

\end{tikzpicture}%
\end{document}